An assesment of the potential for atmospheric verification emission in the Netherlands

The Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) project ME02: Integrated observations and modelling of Greenhouse Gas budgets at the national level in the Netherlands aimed to “develop an advanced GHG information system - consisting of a comprehensive set of monitoring systems, combined with a complementary suite of 3D models – that is able to quantify the magnitude, trends and associated uncertainties of the biogenic and anthropogenic greenhouse gas budgets at high spatial and temporal resolutions”. While doing so, a protocol has been developed to provide an independent reference estimate for the verification of national emissions, and reductions thereof, as reported by the parties in the UNFCCC and Kyoto framework. The project operationalized a sensor network (tower based and airborne) to monitor GHG concentrations and boundary layer dynamics. High resolution emission and transport models (RAMS, WRF, COMET, TM5) have been developed for CO2 and CH4 and validated against data from the monitoring network. Both data and model based inversion methods have been developed and used to produce emission estimates. Data based methods allowed estimates at national scale representing multi-annual budgets, while model based estimates allowed spatially explicit, seasonal estimates to be made. Resulting national estimates suggest that emissions for N2O and CH4 may be higher than reported, though typical uncertainties are high. The consortium published extensively in peer reviewed literature, but also addressed policy community by presenting at e.g. COP15 and at national ministries. Continuity of this research is sought through the European ICOS initiative, but national support has not been confirmed yet (December 2011).