Simulation experiments with a simple mixed layer model to predict ocean surface temperature anomalies

A number of model simulations of the changes in observed monthly mean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns for the North-Pacific and North-Atlantic oceans have been performed with a simple model for the mixed layer of the oceans. Of all possible important processes we have considered only advection of the climatological mean temperature field by anomalous winddriven currents and the effect of small eddies which is represented as a diffusion
term.
In periods when persistence of the anomalies is high, the model produces little skill over persistence. The skill is mainly due to the diffusion term.
However in an individual case of strong windforcing when persistence is low and new anomalies are formed, the model performance is much better than persistence. The performance of the model indicates that to a large extent
SSTA patterns are formed in periods of strong windforcing and are slowly moving back to normal in subsequent periods of relatively low surface wind forcing.