Design discharge of the large rivers in The Netherlands - towards a new methodology

The design discharge of the large rivers in The Netherlands has been derived from statistical analysis of time series of peak discharges. Because the available time series are relatively short compared to the required mean recurrence period of 1250 years, and may also be non-homogeneous, the estimated design-discharge is subject to large uncertainties. In order to reduce these uncertainties, a new methodology is being developed, consisting of a stochastic multivariate weather generator and a hydrological/hydraulic model. Preliminary results are presented for the Rhine basin.