On future Western European winters with applications to the energy sector

This report summarizes research conducted at KNMI on request of GasTerra and NAM, to the future changes of western European winter temperatures and their rela- tion to atmospheric blocking. It analyzes possible future changes and uncertainties of winter heating degreedays, a key parameter in the gas and energy sector. A detailed comparison with the KNMI’06 scenarios is performed. Also discussed are the future changes of cold spells and the relation with atmospheric blocking.