Tropical Cyclone Projections using Environmental Proxies and Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling

Suzana J. Camargo Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University

In the first part of this talk, I’ll give an overview of the current state-of-the art knowledge of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones, based on a recently published review paper In the second part of the talk, I’ll describe of the research that the Columbia group is doing on this topic, in particular, projections of the relationship between tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the role of ENSO diversity on these projections and how the current tropical Pacific trends in models can affect these projections.  Besides results from CMIP6, a statistical-downscaling model that generates synthetic tropical cyclones from reanalysis and climate models large-scale fields will be presented. I will show the results obtained when downscaling the CMIP6 models and what we can learn from them.